Friday, 9 January 2015

BANK 2005 FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

BANK 2005 FINANCE AND INVESTMENT


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Abstract

This research report investigates the January effect, which is the abnormal change in share price in the stock market during January. This anomaly reflects an increase in the stock market during the month of January, which is the period beginning on the last trading day of December and continues into January. The effect has a diminishing in scale as the time reaches January. This fact is generally caused by an increase in buying in December, which leads to a sharp increase in price. This report studies the two reasons that may cause the significant change in returns in the stock market, which are investors seeking to create tax losses and dividends receiving in December. The trend in the past ten years suggests that the Australian investors would increase the purchase of shares at the beginning of January, thus leads to an increase in share price in January. Essay on overview of accounting



Introduction

As suggested by researchers, there is an arrays or even a combination of primary causes leads to the January effect. This research paper highlights the tax loss-selling hypothesis and dividends received in December hypothesis. Accounting the data done by financial academics, the two hypotheses set out below are to be tested by regression analysis. This paper will explain the methodology of testing and source of data with results generated by regression. These researches will lead to the conclusion regarding whether this trading strategy can result in a increase in profit.

Hypothesis

In order to reduce capital gain tax, investors tend to sell stocks in December to lower capital gain, which leads to high trading volume in December and January next year.

Dividends are received in December, which gives investors the incentive to purchase more stock in January, which leads to the abnormal increase in stock price.

The January effect is less pronounced now as the investors are mainly using tax-sheltered retirement plans instead of selling stocks to avoid capital gain tax.

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Incremental Working capital investment

According to the BBC survey in 2009, most of the UK’s big firms are forced to squeeze their working capital investment (Millard & Rachel et al., 2011). But incremental working capital represents the current company costs for staffing, purchasing inventories, technology etc. By observing previous 5 years data, the increase rate would be around 50%, because of additional £150 million new investment in the year of 2011. As a water company, seven Trent need to be rising incremental working capital to deliver attractive customer service and producing sustainable annual returns to the stakeholders.(Half yearly financial report, 2012).

Required Rate of Return

In the year of 2012, weighted average cost of capital is 13.157%.

It is very critical to predict the future required rate of return of seven Trent because of fluctuating their variable year by year. From the analysis, it is clear that, the interest expense over the period and total company equity is completely volatile. Situation like this indicates that, the WACC rate would be dropped in the incoming financial years. Only the rising debt amount could be the reason to increase future WACC rates. Because of falling inflation rate the total WACC rate might be declined to 12% over the next couple of years.

Debt and Marketable Securities

Seven Trent has a long term debt by comparing with other competitors in the same industry. In 2008, net debt was £3.3 billion and went to £3.8 billion at the end of year 2011. The total net debt percentage was 54% in 2011. According to the 2012 Annual report, debt is going to increase up to £4.1 billion by the year of 2017. Also, it has a debt of total capital ratio of 83.80% in 2012. (Financial times 2013). On the other hand, marketable securities are increasing as well. In 2012, it was £3.77 billion and already reached to £3.9 billion in next few years. From the statistical analysis and observation there is a gradual increase to seven Trent total securities

Reference


1. Millard, S. & Rachel, L. et al. (2011) “Understanding the macroeconomics effects of working capital in the United Kingdom”, Journal of Bank of England, pp. 12-13. 

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